The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Paperback – 28 February 2008

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former options trader and a professor of risk engineering. The book is part of a five-book series by Taleb on uncertainty, called Incerto. In this book, Taleb introduces the concept of a black swan, which is an extremely rare and unpredictable event that has a huge impact on history, science, technology, finance, and society. Examples of black swans include the rise of the internet, the 9/11 attacks, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Taleb argues that most of our knowledge and predictions are based on what we already know and observe, which makes us blind to the possibility and consequences of black swans. He also criticizes the human tendency to rationalize and simplify black swans after they happen, as if they were predictable and inevitable.Taleb’s main message is that we should embrace uncertainty and randomness, rather than try to avoid or control them. He proposes a set of principles and practices to help us deal with black swans and benefit from them. These include being skeptical of experts and theories, being aware of our own biases and limitations, being open to alternative perspectives and scenarios, being flexible and adaptable to changing situations, being prepared for the worst-case outcomes, and being antifragile, which means gaining from disorder and volatility. Taleb also warns us against the dangers of overconfidence, arrogance, and hubris, which can make us vulnerable to black swans.The book is written in a lively and engaging style, with anecdotes, stories, parables, and philosophical discussions. Taleb draws on his personal experience as a trader and a scholar, as well as his wide-ranging knowledge of history, literature, science, mathematics, psychology, and economics. He challenges conventional wisdom and provokes readers to question their own assumptions and beliefs. He also injects humor and sarcasm into his arguments, making them entertaining and memorable.The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a landmark book that has influenced many fields and domains. It is a book that challenges us to rethink our understanding of the world and our role in it. It is a book that offers insights, wisdom, and inspiration for navigating the complex and uncertain reality that we face.

Superb read!

NNT could have easily compressed his points and concepts in a crisp 200 page best seller but instead choose, given his style of writing, to present his views in a rather long, occassionally drifting 380 page odd book. The concepts are profound and illuminating but i guess his publisher couldn't pressure him enough to compress those.This does not take away from the fact that just like Fooled by Randomness and Skin in the Game, this piece too is mindblowing.A must read.

I've not finished the book yet partly because of smaller fonts. Wish they optimise the font size to be minimum 9 or 10.The book is enigmatic and I love the new perspectives it brings.This is not from the usual "one book every year " author.

we , the human beings are pathetic at predicting the upcoming events or future .its hard to fathom the idea of how a tiny insignificent event could dramatically change everything .This book tells about the nature of what we call as random events, it also clarify the logical limitations and restrictions that make us overlook the bigger and outer picture.But hey , author gives you clues how you could do better to polish your expectations for unexpected

I loved reading this book - although not the easiest to read - it provides tonnes of knowledge and questions long held beliefs. Definitely worth reading

As far as books is concerned. I’ve read it multiple times and I own previous editions.Main purpose of buying was to own the second edition but I received same version as I bought 5 years back.This is my first bad experience with Amazon books and probably the last.It’s better to buy such books at the store.

In the kindle version, there is a major flaw in in the formula of the Mandelbrotian law which is at the center of the book. A power sign is printed in the kindle version such that it does not look like a power sign